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Preprints

New results on bioRxiv and medRxiv, before peer review.

Latest picks

121–127 of 127
Sep 15Tue
  1. medRxiv Oncology43

    Cross-Source Progression Assessment in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer: An Opportunity-Adjusted Six-State Analysis

    Cross-source progression assessment in advanced pancreatic cancer frequently failed to yield immediate confirmation of progression. Among 645 patients in the primary estimand, only 25 (3.88%) showed same-day concordance, 219 (33.95%) confirmation, 108 (16.74%) explicit nonprogression, and 166 (25.74%) were indeterminate. Among classifiable first opportunities, 33.03% documented explicit nonprogression, supporting an opportunity-adjusted six-state framework over binary discordance estimates.

    Why it matters: Quantifies how often oncology and radiology sources disagree on progression, affecting how progression endpoints are interpreted.

Sep 14Mon
  1. medRxiv Oncology45

    Matched marrow and blood profiling reveals compartment- and feature-specific liquid-biopsy signals in multiple myeloma

    Peripheral-blood cfDNA matched or exceeded marrow-plasma cfDNA as a liquid biopsy for multiple myeloma, despite the tumor's marrow confinement. In 74 patients profiled across 372 cfDNA time points, blood cfDNA recovered marrow-defined CNAs and mutations at 77.4% vs 72.0% and 69.2% vs 65.4%, and at high tumor fraction adverse-lesion sensitivity reached 100% in both compartments. Marrow cfDNA did show distinct, handling-sensitive fragmentomic architecture (LOOCV AUC=0.910), so compartment, biomarker class, tumor fraction and processing all shape liquid-biopsy performance.

    Why it matters: It shows a simpler blood draw is not inferior to marrow-derived cfDNA for myeloma genomic profiling, with practical processing caveats.

  2. medRxiv Oncology51

    Glycovariants of CA-125 in the early detection of ovarian cancer

    The Sialyl-Thomsen-nouveau (STn) glycovariant of CA-125 predicted ovarian cancer years before clinical diagnosis, whereas conventional CA-125, HE4 and MGL-detected glycovariants did not. In a case-control study of 82 incident ovarian cancer cases matched 1:3 to controls from the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort, CA-125-STn had an AUC of 0.68 for cases within 5 years of blood draw, and 49% of those cases fell in the top 20% of CA-125-STn levels. The finding suggests a marker that may detect ovarian cancer earlier than conventional CA-125 screening, which two randomized trials showed does not reduce mortality.

    Why it matters: It identifies a CA-125 glycovariant that may detect ovarian cancer years before conventional markers fail.

Sep 12Sat
  1. medRxiv Oncology45

    AI detects a distributed blood metabolomic Systemotype associated with early stage ovarian cancer

    A machine-learning classifier detected early-stage ovarian cancer from untargeted metabolomic profiles with cross-validated sensitivity and specificity of 99.0% and 99.8% in serum (59 cancer, 32 controls) and 97.7% and 99.7% in plasma (63 cancer, 20 controls). Both cohorts shared 239 concordantly altered features across lipid, amino-acid, steroid, central-carbon, and redox metabolism, supporting a distributed metabolic 'Systemotype' detectable in blood.

    Why it matters: Reported sensitivities and specificities far exceed those of existing ovarian cancer blood biomarkers used for screening.

  2. medRxiv Oncology58

    Effective tumor kinetics inferred from single routine H&E biopsies enable counterfactual virtual radiotherapy trials

    Patient-specific proliferation and diffusion rates of a reaction-diffusion model can be inferred from a single routine H&E biopsy by fitting cell-nucleus point patterns, validated across eleven multicenter cohorts. The derived dispersion length and front velocity stratified progression-free and overall survival independent of routine covariates. A virtual glioblastoma trial allocating hypofractionation to faster-growing tumors and dose intensification to slower-growing ones added 96.7 days of restricted mean progression-free survival over standard of care (permutation p < 0.001).

    Why it matters: It turns a single routine H&E biopsy into patient-specific tumor growth parameters usable for survival prediction and virtual treatment trials.

Sep 11Fri
  1. medRxiv Oncology54

    Absolute Benefit of Androgen Deprivation Therapy With Radiotherapy for Localized Prostate Cancer

    An integrated model combining STAR-CAP cancer-specific risk, OCCAM other-cause mortality risk, and MARCAP efficacy estimates shows wide variation in absolute benefit from androgen deprivation therapy within NCCN risk groups. Applied to 5468 PLCO prostate cancer patients, adding short-term ADT to radiotherapy in unfavorable intermediate-risk disease gave a median 10-year distant metastasis ARR of 4% (range <1% to almost 15%), while prolonging ADT in high-risk disease gave a median ARR of 9% (0.4%-17.2%). The model provides individualized estimates to support treatment discussions rather than uniform group-level recommendations.

    Why it matters: Quantifies how little absolute benefit some men within standard risk groups derive from ADT, informing individualized decisions.

Sep 10Thu
  1. medRxiv Oncology71

    A spatial single-cell transcriptomic atlas of metastatic breast cancer progression

    A single-cell spatial transcriptomic atlas of metastatic breast cancer profiles 520,850 cells from 126 tumor samples of 44 patients, covering 171,766 cancer cells and 349,084 tumor microenvironment cells across primary and metastatic lesions. Multiple time points per patient revealed treatment-induced transcriptional changes driving therapy resistance, immune subpopulations predictive of hormone receptor loss, and transcriptomic features of subclones selected during progression that hold future metastatic potential.

    Why it matters: It provides a large longitudinal spatial single-cell resource for studying metastatic breast cancer progression and therapy resistance.

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