Pharma’s $500B patent problem will come in waves — not as a cliff

Evaluate forecasting data from Norstella show more than $500 billion in worldwide prescription drug sales at risk from generic competition between 2026 and 2032, with the largest single-year exposure of $158 billion in 2031. Merck is most exposed near term as Keytruda nears expiry in 2028, a year with $99 billion in sales at risk, while AbbVie faces roughly $50 billion of exposure in 2032 when Rinvoq and Skyrizi lose protection. Patent-exposed companies have responded with dealmaking since the start of 2024, led by Merck's six deals totalling $30.9 billion and Lilly's $27.2 billion across nine.